Monday, November 3, 2008

Bobbar "Elephant" Ephphect

Everyone is worried about the Bradely effect. I say pish posh to that.

This election will have the Bobbar Elephant Effect. The vast majority of middle class white people are more likely to have a secret shame and anger for the fools they have been made of by the Grand Ol Party than any sort of racism. I expect a statistically significant increase in votes for third party candidates at the expense of McCain.

Especially from those in the Blue States.

Think about it. You know your vote is wasted in California if your a conservative. The GOP has messed things up beyond FUBAR for you and your 401k. Give them a little bit to be scared about by voting Bob Barr. If your really vengeful go for Nader.

How many pissed off middle class conservative folks with functioning frontal lobes would tell a pollster the truth?
Let's take a poll to find out.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Ben Bernake wins the 2009 Rube Goldberg Contest

I was reading the rules phor the 2009 contest at rubegoldberg.com

The goal phor 2009 is to replace an incandescent bulb with an alternative, relatively more ephphicient, light emitting device. Within the execution of the machine, it is encouraged to demonstrate within some step that the incandescent light bulb does indeed work. Though it is encouraged to show the incandescent bulb lights up, it is not required.
And it hit me like a ton of bricks, for a very long time it was believed that the engine of economics runs like a big fancy Rolls-Royce 16 cylinder machine. An elaborate motor with several pistons running, sometimes parts can go bad and impair a portion of the movements but the overall motion continues with the other pistons that still function. This work of art managed to "turn the crank" of the economy with some of the pistons not working at all. Adjustments can be made to the pieces as it ran and it would get back to full steam over time. If too many pieces broke it would then stop, but all you needed to do was throw out what was broken, then put in new pieces using the same tools you had used for maintenance and it would start up again. This is what we call the Austrian school of thought.

Later on some folks decided the world's economy was better off if we used a gigantic fancy watch with a plethora of gears, cogs and balances. It was believed that a constant tinkering with the size and shape of pieces could allow it to run forever. If this "money clock" started to sputter or jump about, you just needed to tinker with the pieces to get it back into syncopation. This machine never stops spinning but it gets really hard to keep track of the time and you are always running the risk of being too late or too early for something important. You never have to worry about it stopping but you also gave up on reliability. This is the Keynesian economics theory.

Ben Bernake has a new kind of machine going now. Having lost track of how all those little gears and cogs go together he has given up on fixing the "money clock" and has simply thrown all the pieces into a gigantic Rube Goldberg machine. And every time the little brass balls fall of the track, he tacks on some more alphabet soup pieces to make it roll again.

This machine he built has left us with only two possible outcomes, it will either come crashing down into a gigantic mess or continue growing hasty patches and fixes forever.

He probably wishes he could roll out the old 16 cylinder engine to run the economy, but he sold that off to a Far East trader a long time ago.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

What Who to Vote Phor?

Iph they allow the election to continue, I think I am limited to either one of two distinct choices.

Iph I want to hold on to the lifestyle we Americans have been accustomed to, I think I will have to vote for the person I pheel is most capable and steadfast in his desire to preserve the "Great American Dream". Someone who has demonstrated a willingness to do anything and everything possible, even those things that we did not consider possible will be done. All avenues pursued, all recourse's taken, all haste be made for the salvation and preservation of the all powerful, all consuming American way of life. I have to choose such a determined advocate, in order to travail over the coming implosion of the US Dollar Hegemony. It is absolutely vital to the continuity and dominance of America that we elect an individual capable of such acts.

On the other hand......... Iph I pheel that the excesses of the past and the sins of our fathers are a shameful disgrace and unworthy of the ideals of our republic than I must choose a leader who has stood fast against the torrent of abuses that we have enjoyed until now. A leader who has demonstrated a sincere effort to abide by the principle's of our republic of free men. A leader who has lived not just by words but by deeds, to uphold, defend and protect the Constitution of these United States from all enemies foreign and domestic. Iph I feel that the path we have been led down is the wrong one, I must be an advocate for change.

So it has come down to two choices. I will vote phore either Dick Chaney or Ron Paul.

You read me right, Chaney or Paul. We have no other choices other than these two. We have reached a point of necessary extremism. Neither McCain nor Obama have the brass ones to be our President now, at this time, never for the predicament we are in. To late for one, to soon for the other.

If you like living it up consuming half of the WORLDS economic output. If you like the idea of being part of the 5% of the global population that gets to keep almost half of everything(water, minerals, meat, gas, toys, etc... etc...) you are most assuredly not going to waste a vote on anyone else but Dick Chaney. Dick Chaney is your man, right here, right now. No one else has the unmitigated gaul to do what it takes to preserve this lifestyle we enjoy.

John McCain just wants to be president. Dick Chaney wants America to be the alpha-dog of the WORLD.

You don't need liberty. You don't need free speech. You don't need anything we used to hold as self evident. You just need to be content with driving big cars to big malls and big theaters and big restaurants with big meals and bigger doggy bags to take back to your big homes. That is the stuff you like, that is what comforts you. You can do without "Free Assembly" just as long as you can have all the "Some Assembly Required's" that your heart desires.

Iph you have read the Constitution of these United States and thought it would be great to live in a place that followed it, you have to vote for Ron Paul. Not because you agree with his platform 100% or as little as 0%. You have to vote for him, because you need a president that reads and comprehends the Constitution. If you don't like his position on a subject, I've got news for you. He is actually going to bother with asking the permission of Congress to do anything. He is going to follow the rule of law. He will not rule over the law. He will not venture beyond any mandate set forth in the Constitution. If you don't like the idea of Ron Paul not perpetuating an agency or policy that was never the role of the Executive branch to begin with, you better put Dick Chaney in office.

Obama is a populist, that means he will do what makes everyone happy. We are done being happy. Happy did not end well. We are so far gone into the black hole of debt that any means of social welfare are pointless and doomed to failure. We need to get used to the fact that we must depend on only ourselves as individuals. Individuals can only succeed with cooperation. Government will have to limit itself to facilitating cooperation amongst citizens from neighbor to neighbor, town to town, county to county, state to state. Organizing cooperation will be the only viable function of government from now on, until we get back on our feet.

If Obama wanted change he should have never voted for the bailout. Instead of making excuses for why the bailout is needed, maybe he should read up on the Constitution to find out that it is not a Senators duty to make Kings who can rule without rebuke and unchallenged absolutism.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Is the Phrienamy of my Phrienamy my Phriend?

Iph I asked you this question would you answer it any other way than NO?

Q? Would you still be my phriend if we played a game of chance according to my rules, using my money, using my gameboards. And would you still be my phriend, if I changed the rules whenever I was losing. And if you tried to use the same tricks I would punish you for trying. And even though I let you win money, I print more of it so that yours won't be worth much and I can continue playing the game.

A? (ask yourself this)

So why do you think Russia is going to continue putting up with the drek that the United States Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are getting away with.

If Russia were stupid enough to answer yes to this question, they would impoverish themselves, squander energy resources for less than their real value, and never ever win. The Russians have lost a quarter of the value of their equity markets in two days. How much more abuse can they take?

How long will it take Medjedev to learn to imitate South Park's Cartman and say "Screw you guys, I'm going home." For our sake I hope it takes some time.

Russia has the curious good fortune to have gotten into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. Every other country is so deep into the Dollar dominated system that they have no choice but to cross the stream of finance with the American Scorpion on its' back. Russia had been flat broke twice in one generation. One more economic disaster is a cake walk for them. Third time's the charm as they say.

Bernake and Paulson are less than 6 weeks away from the finish line. They have no plan or, in the parlance of Administration Speak, "time horizon" beyond that point. Nothing they have done or are doing right now serves any purpose other than to kick the can down the road. Everyone who isn't led by the nose, knows this. Everyone is just praying that the "can" can still be kept kicking down the road.

Putin has a golden opportunity to exceed at achieving all of his goals for a greater Russia, if he can force an expedited end to the charade we call global international finance or US dollar hegemony.

What is keeping him from doing any and all of the following:

1) A complete overtaking of Georgia.
2) Placing a Fire Sale on his foreign assets, specifically US GSE debt holdings (Fannie/Freddie)
3) Cutting off 20% of Europe's energy supplies.
4) Parking some ICBM Nukes in Hugo Chavez's "crazytown" formally know as Chile.
5) Giving Iran some free Tanks, Missiles and other weapons for safe keeping.

What would happen. A crap shoot. Literally. No one can really predict with confidence how things turn out. But, WTF, If I am in Putins' place, I don't see how I'm better off sticking with the status quo. Heck no, I scream FIRE in the theater and make sure I'm the first one through the only exit door.

Remember this guy has fun shooting a tranquiliser gun at wild TIGERS!!!!!!!!!! not that pussy footing pigeon shoot at a "game" ranch where the targets are practically tied down so you can still hit one when your so piss drunk, you shoot your lawyer in the face.

I only offer these 5 events, because he has already committed these already to some extent, I can imagine a lot of other options at his disposal that can achieve his goals. I can imagine them but I never want to see them happen so "mums the word".

If he were to do all of this at once and with conviction, he could vapor lock the global scam being perpetrated upon the hapless citizens of the world powers.

Europe would have so many problems to deal with they would be forced to ignore the issues of the United States, watch for a return to "Dark Ages II, the eccentric bugaboo". Latin America will go bananas. The Middle East would redo the 1970's. All of Asia will look like a panicked crowd running wild underneath Godzilla. Aussies, Black Shirts and Canadians will drink beers, hunt and build fences to keep everyone out. Africa will be ignored by everyone, as usual, except China.

Dumping Russian holdings in US Debt would force a mark to market fubar of biblical proportions. The US would have to either bailout everyone else holding the debt or force a close to all of the markets. I doubt they will pull off the global "timeout" so everyone has to call their marks and margins. Everyone else should band together and not sell but the prisoner dilemma will mean that everyone seeks to defend their own hides. Gold nose dives as everyone tries to clear out, the only ones buying Gold will be :SURPRISE: Russia and anyone else with cash to spend. HMMMMMM China has a lot of cash burning a hole in their tattered pockets. I wonder what they will do. Help the US or look out for themselves?

Poor ol' Hank and HeliBenny will have to put the US Bureau of Printing and Engraving into hyper-overdrive. Lucky for them, they managed to herd some of the scared sheep into Treasuries recently. It won't be but a drop in the credit crunch bucket, but every bit helps.

Every government will place export controls on everything money related. My GLD ETF that shot up 700% gets confiscated by the IRS. Thanks for that, I am glad I could help uncle Sam in his time of need. By the way uncle, my boss just let me go, can you help me out? What's that? Oh you need me to get to the back of the line behind 38% of my cousins. OK, thanks for nothing.

Everyone heads for the exits at the same time. The US has to make a choice, inflate away the loses or give up almost 50% of the economy. You can print all you want no one will take it.

Dick "treat-as-secret" Chaney could try to fight our way out of this mess, but I am confident that our military leaders will refuse to wage war just so that a few can stay rich. And none of the brass will go for the "football" option. Putin will match Chaney blow by blow. No doubt of that. So why would we try. Seriously Dick, don't be a dick. Give the football back to the nice man in the uniform. Slowly.

So what happens when we give up 50% of our economy? Well, we just try to get by, live simpler lives. We get to find out what the real America is all about. The other 95% of the worlds humans get to compete for that half of the global economy we lost to greed.

First world nations will be the ones that have natural resources in abundance, stable societies and citizens who can fend for themselves.

Second world nations will be those that can manage to get by on their own.

Third world nations will be saddled with large populations of people incapable of self reliance, lacking in capital for productive wealth creation and dependant on the charity of others.

Hmm sounds a lot like how it is today.

In this new world order the Russians get to set the global agenda from now on and the Chinese, if they manage to keep it together, will evolve, overtime as a counterbalance.

You can't be a big shot unless you have someone to lord over so the EU gets to be someone elses' bitch again, (note: If you don't want to be a bitch again don't be a EUnuch, go back to being unique). You would think you learned your lesson the first time.

I can only hope for the best for everyone else. I just don't hold out much hope for Africa. They always seem to get the shaft. It's not fair, but neither is life in general.

When the dust settles the measure of each nation will be taken from the strength of its governance and the value of its goods. How the US measures up then will be sad. But from where we will end up soon, we can only improve.

Strength and Honor

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

A Pharfetched Epitath of 1 Man's Legacy

I spend a lot of time thinking about what effect my decisions will have on my phuture and then I came to a realization that I can't be the only that does this. Other people, also, must be mulling over the if's and but's of life.

Other mere mortals have confided in me that they do the same. People I respect, people I care for, and everyday random people who seem to prevail over the challenges of life.

But then I'll see a clip of someone doing no such thing on every talk show in America. Dr. Phil has built his whole career upon the phrase "What were you thinking?" Often enough I run into people totally immersed in the kool-aide. Oblivious to the consequences of tomorrow.

The problem was that I was finding myself numerically outnumbered.

Then I really threw myself into a tizzy by asking if the "powers that be" were like me or more like the basket cases on the the talk shows??????????

Then I narrowed my focus to Alan Greenspan. Was he really fit for daytime talkshow fodder or did he think things through?????????

So, Alan Greenspan, what were you thinking ?????????
Do you plod on without a hint of forbearance? Or are the sooth sayings your lips blather out a result of deep contemplation of consequences?????

In 2000, I had an adequate number of functioning brain cells to figure out that the tech stock bubble was a load of bull and in the ensuing years I realized that housing in So Cal was another load of horse hockey. I made a well above average living and the bank was telling me the only neighborhood they would let me live in with a traditional fixed rate 30 year mortgage with a max monthly payment limited to lees than 30% of my monthly income was in Compton. But on the other hand if I wanted to go "exotic" on the loan I could live next to my income peers anywhere in SoCal that I wanted. Or, I could even live next door to my boss, if I wanted, all I had to do was avoid using simple math and not ask silly questions like "But what if I can't find a buyer or financing in two years to pay me more than I owe ?" This made no sense to me so I never purchased a home. Still don't own one.

But, Alan, you told me it was a good idea. You said banks should expand credit so that everyone could own a home in Compton. You said this was the greatest thing since sliced bread. You said that freeing banks from the burden of holding loans on their balance sheets would make everyone happy, rich and free to spend money.

So what is it, did you think this through or not??????

I am going to go out on a whim and make a bet that you thought this through, just like I did. That your not the perfect guest for Dr. Phil. That you are smart and purposeful. That you have a reason for your actions.

You sly dog, you did this on purpose didn't you. Props to you man, you pulled off the greatest act of cocksutery in the history of history. I have got to hand it to you, the finesse and style is top notch.

I am kind of surprised no one else has picked up on this before, I mean it just jumped out at me when I was reading it. You are like a super groupie fan of Ayn Rand. I mean she was right there with you when you got sworn in as the Great Jester of the Court aka Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors.

I mean come on what is a guy doing running a Government Sanctioned Controlling Authority of Wealth Creation who is also a bonafide buddy bud fan of Ayn Rand????? That is the definition of oxymoron.

I mean who in there right mind is going to appoint an extremist libertarian to that position? What kind of extremist libertarian disciple is going to be willing to work for the instruments of control over wealth???
It didn't make sense to me... then it hit me. This is like some weird mash up of Manchurian Candidate-Atlas Shrugged-Fountainhead all rolled up in one sneaky little man in a suit and coke-bottle glasses.

You little devil...you! Had us all thinking your just this bookish wonk with big words and fancy sentence structure. Only famous for being able to use more words than a Scrabble tournament to say absolutely nothing. The whole time your this mesh of John Galt/Howard Roark just bidding your time and spinning your web.

Man it is stunning to realize. You planned this all from the start. Sowing the seeds of destruction of the entire top down control of wealth right from within the belly of the beast itself. Epic man, epic......... I just keep getting stunned by the brilliance of it.

Ayn Rand would be spinning in her grave fast enough to light the entire planet if she lived to see the way we are now. I mean the whole point of Objectivism was about everyone living the life of an individual, free to flourish in a natural state. Now the State has declared the freedom of the individual and nature itself to be a threat to its continued supremacy and existence. The only things even remotely recognizable to an Objectivist, like Ayn Rand, would be the virtual and unnatural liberties of cyber space.

But you did it man, you did it...... Now all that is going to come to an end. I mean sure you had to break a few nesteggs for the greater good but I'm okay with that, in a way. Now I get to look forward to only relying on myself for my well being. I am up for the challenge.

I'm not sure the rest of them will be so admiring but this "punishment" really hurts you more than it will hurt them, right? They won't see it that way for a long time, but let me be the first to say so. Thanks for instigating the infliction of so much pain and suffering on the sheeple that they finally realize they could not depend on anyone except themselves for the own well being. Eons of people managed to do so before the 20th century, we might as well go back to what always worked.

I mean who was I kidding when I thought I could retire at 67 years of age in a few decades, while at the same time science promised me I could live to be 120 and the government would grant me the privilege to spend less than half of my years on this planet doing something productive. Thank you for deluding me of this silly notion.

Man... I'm still trying to take this all in....brilliant....Here we have a bonafide card carrying member of the Objectivist movement sitting there at the start of his career asking himself...."How do I live up to my principles?" "The whole system is built and run contrary to the way I want to live. I know, I'll go deep cover "Serpico" style on them."

"I'll sign up, salute, wrap myself in the flag and march up the ladder, straight into the Heart of Darkness itself (The Fed). Tell everyone everything is going to be okay. Carpe Diem, let them eat cake, bring on the bread and circuses...You have nothing to fear my children... everything you wish for, will be yours. The Secret is real!!!!!!!!"

And then when it is too late for them to realize what I have wrought, I will leave them. The legacy I will leave behind for them to follow will be to use the most words to convey the least meaning. They will continue on the easy path of debt creation. When troubles or worries surface I will sooth their hearts and minds with even more pithy and frothy rhetoric.

They will be drunk with comfort, indifferent to the life of perpetual debt service. Americans will marvel at their own prowess to create wealth from words alone. The rest of the world will look with envy and lust for all things American. And soon enough our admirers around the world will grow in number.

They will grow and grow until they themselves will be able to lust for the same things that Americans lust for and posses. Eventually those that toiled to make the items of lust for Americans will have many others knocking on their doors for the very same things. And soon enough, there will be so many that they will ask to take that which an American had asked to take for himself. And the tinkerer who toiled to make the lustful things will ask the American with what will he barter me for the trinket and the American will show him a piece of paper that promised to give him more paper in the future to barter with, but the others, several of whom had trinkets of their own to offer the trinket maker tempted him with the things he fancied. And eventually the trinket makers competed amongst themselves to see who could create the most dazzling lustful trinket that the other trinket makers would barter for. And soon enough the American found that no one, who still made things, would accept his pieces of paper that only promised more pieces of paper and the American went home with his hands empty and his belly growling because he had sold his last morsel to gather more pieces of paper to give to the bank in barter to live under his roof that he borrowed from the bank.

And they bought it, man, hook line and sinker.... Heck the whole planet got into kool-aide you brewed.

Now I know exactly how you must have felt as you read Atlas Shrugged as it was being written by Ayn. It is quite ethereal to watch the phuture unwind from your lips to reality. I mean it is like I am right in the middle of a Greek tragedy as it happens.

So tell me, when are you going to fill us in on the next chapter???????

I mean your plan up until know is so top notch AWESOME, the rest has got to be top-shelf primo stuff right??????

Where do we go from here? Is there some enclave a la Atlas Shrugged you have going? I know I'm not supposed to ask, as an individual, with help to get to the enclave, I just wanted to let you know that I am on board with the whole thing and just need a map or something I can follow on my own to get there, no help with directions or stuff. Just a big X on a map. I can figure out where the "you are here" button on my own. Throw me a Da Vinci Code bone here man!!!!!

If there is no enclave of self styled go-getters, who are going to live a happy life free of the tyranny of group-think nanny states, I can fend for myself. So it's cool if you don't manage to send a PDF of the "map" to my inbox. Its cool, no harm no foul.

Just toss me a little note that says you have more to the plot. Just a little something to let me know that this was all deliberate on your part. That none of this was just happenstance and shooting from the hip. I mean that's the least you could do for the guy that was the first to publicly realize your brilliance. Isn't it.

I sit here waiting for your acknowledgement, otherwise I don't think I can handle the idea that this was all just a bad day at the office for you.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Just in Time turns into Can't Be Late

JIT Inventory, the wonder of our times is going to turn around and bite us in the arse.

The pending vapor lock of commercial credit is going to ripple through and find weaknesses in the supply chains.

Some vendor somewhere is going to find it impossible to float some amount of commercial backed paper someday. When that happens he won't have the cash for payroll, fuel, rent, payables, etc... He will cry to his bank. The bank will hem and haw................
Charge him Guido rates to get hime by this week.

Multiply this out and soon enough someone, in some loading dock somewhere is gonna be waiting for a truck that never comes. He will tell his manager that the line needs to be shut down because he has no material to load into the production line.

Manager tells Administration. Phone calls fly around, eventually letterhead from an attorney gets flow around. And then the next day HR gets a memo to stock up on 8.5x11 Pink #30.

Rinse and repeat.

Someone goes home to sit next to their spouse who has already been sitting at home because the big box home improvement chain has slashed orders for the widgets that were made at their factory.

The kids mill around the house also because the parents couldn't manage another HELOC to pay for college this year.

Meanwhile the Corporate holding companies file claims against their insurances for all of the disruptions. The insurers collectivley deficate their tailored suits, since they lack any capital to cover the claims and can't raise a red cent in the credit market because the monolines have turned them into Chernobyl for everyone else.

Rinse and repeat until the politicians socialize the debt to everyone.